These periodic ramblings are written, produced and directed by Ronald Dale Karr, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Obviously, the opinions expressed here are my own, not those of the University.
If it weren't for the immense suffering he has inflicted on the people of YUGOSLAVIA, both Serb and Kosovar, one could almost feel sorry for BILL CLINTON. But like his previous crises the Comeback Kid brought this one on himself. Everyone is worse off than they were on March 24, not least of all the Kosovars, in whose name we wage this war. Seduced by hubris, power, and blind faith in technology, the leader of the world's only Superpower couldn't resist the opportunity for glory and to establish NATO's place as the enforcing agent of the NEW WORLD ORDER of global corporate capitalism.
Consider the BEST CASE scenario: next week, Slobo announces he's agreed to all NATO terms and orders all his troops out of Kosovo. He then appears live on Serb TV alongside his chief general. He confesses to terrible war crimes, whips out a gun, shoots the general, and then blows out his own brains, shouting "God bless America!" EVEN THEN, think where we are. Getting the Kosavars home will take months, maybe years, demanding coordination skills and funding that may be beyond us. The KLA, of course, will expect to be in charge. If not, civil war. Who will rebuild the economy of Kosovo, which already was the most backward part of Serbia? Who will remove the live but unexploded bombs that litter the landscape? What about post-war post-Slobo Serbia? Can the region rebuild if Yugoslavia remains shattered, poor, disease-ridden, and sullen? This says nothing about repairing relations with Russia and China. And that's the best case!
If Clinton had been PAYING ATTENTION in his college history classes instead of pawing the girl beside him he might have learned that wars have UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES that even the most powerful nation cannot control or predict. For that reason alone it's wise to avoid wars. With overwhelming might behind him Clinton was certain that he could dictate a settlement to Milosevic, that threats would be enough to bring Slobo into line. When his bluff was called, Clinton sent in the bombers, confident that a WHIFF OF GUNPOWDER would bring the Serbian dog to heal. Instead, the situation veered out of control. The war was intended to protect the Kosovars from ethnic cleansing; instead, most of the Kosovars have been expelled by a combination of Serbian attacks and NATO bombings. The bombing of Serbian Yugolslavia, not just the war zone in Kosovo, has enabled Slobo to consolidate his previously shaky hold on power. As we predicted, the bombing has now killed nearly as many Serb and Kosovar civilians as the Serbians are alleged to have slaughtered in Kosovo before the war. Bombing chemical plants and oil refineries has caused vast environmental damage and endangered the health of millions of people. Relations with nuclear-armed RUSSIA are dangerously strained, and now China grows increasingly hostile.
Back in March Clinton had MANY OTHER OPTIONS to sending in the bombers and cruise missiles. What now? Slobo could decide to throw in the towel at any time, of course, but DON'T COUNT ON IT. Certainly there is no sign that heavy bombing alone will lead to an easy NATO victory. Send in the marines? Ground troops face formidable obstacles, including the rugged Kosovar terrain, bad weather, a determined, well-prepared foe, and immense logistical difficulties. The most practical invasion route is by way of Hungary, the way HITLER TOOK YUGOSLAVIA, but this means attacking Serbia before going on to liberate Kosovo. It also almost certainly would entail urban warfare, the type the Germans waged against the Russians in Leningrad and Berlin: block by block, house by house, room by room, combat the old fashioned way, mano a mano, no room for high-tech weapons here. Lots of causalities—the Russians are said to have lost a million at Leningrad alone. Experience shows this to be one of the most difficult types of combat: bring in the bombers or artillery and reduce the city to rubble, and you have even more places for an enemy to hide and fight. Very, very messy, very frustrating, a mode of combat which no present-day NATO soldier is likely to have ever experienced (but ask the Israelis about Beirut). Another problem with a Hungarian invasion: WHAT WILL RUSSIA DO when faced with a NATO army so close to its borders?
Since he apparently made no plans for a ground invasion, Clinton must have been certain the bombing would do the job. He may still be. A MAJOR PROBLEM is a lack of appropriate targets. Bomb a nation back into the STONE AGE and then what? All that's left is an all-out attack on the Yugoslav people a la HIROSHIMA or DRESDEN. Such a slaughter would dwarf anything Slobo ever dreamed of doing in Kosovo and would constitute the biggest WAR CRIME in fifty years. Meanwhile, the bombing is making Kosovo itself a wasteland; as in Vietnam we're DESTROYING THE COUNTRY TO SAVE IT. If Slobo sits tight, Clinton runs the increasing risk of a long, drawn-out war. Wartime is marked by miscalculation. At the start of World War I both the French and the Germans leaders were convinced one quick, decisive campaign would settle the outcome and that the troops would be home by Christmas (as in the Franco-Prussian War). Instead, four years of savage trench warfare followed. In 1940 it seemed that the Second World War would be a replay of the first; this time Hitler took out France in a manner of weeks.
Should Clinton become mired in a nasty war, one domestic casualty may turn out to be AL GORE. Already BILL BRADLEY'S lackluster campaign is picking up support, and even before the bombing both JUNIOR BUSH and LIBBY DOLE were ahead of Gore in the polls. The voters are seldom kind to Democratic Party when it starts a messy war, no matter how much support the pollsters always find for American military actions. Adlai Stevenson was hurt by Korea in 1952 and Hubert Humphrey could lay much of the blame for his 1968 defeat on Vietnam.
We also have to take this moment, once again, to hammer home to all the children of America that violence is wrong. And parents should take this moment to ask what else they can do to shield our children from violent images and experiences that warp young perceptions and obscure the consequences of violence -- to show our children, by the power of our own example, how to resolve conflicts peacefully.The Welfare Reform Act mandates money for Abstinence Education (I'm not making this up). Maybe Bill (and Monica and/or Hillary) should do videos telling kids to say no to sex.
Sure seems like it. Even ten years ago there were scattered remnants of American radicalism in places like Cambridge who were ready to denounce American imperialism at the drop of a hat. Where have all the flowers gone? One would expect apathy at the working-class campus where I'm employed, but within the past few weeks I've also been on the campuses of Harvard and Cornell, and saw not a single poster or flyer on Yugoslavia. Four weeks ago we attended an anti-war demonstration in downtown Boston: only about 150 showed up, fully half of them Serbs. I couldn't even buy an antiwar button. Only a month or so after Suddam invaded Kuwait in 1990 at least a thousand of us marched through Boston and rallied on the Common against the war, and in January 1991 upwards of 50,000 of us marched down Pennsylvania Ave. in Washington. I have yet to see an antiwar bumper sticker or lawn sign.
Much of the world finds it hard to believe that we could have been so stupid as to mistake the Chinese embassy in Belgrade for a Yugoslavia army building. Having worked at a federal installation for a spell I think it's possible, if not probable. It would be equally stupid to have done it deliberately, but the government certainly has done some wacky things in the past (selling missiles to Iran to arm the Contras comes to mind), so who knows? What IS CURIOUS is why the Pentagon just didn't say sorry, the missiles went astray, as they have before.
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Ronald Dale Karr
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